Fertilizer Prices Expected To Stay Elevated Through 2028

Fertilizer prices are expected to remain above pre-Iran war levels through 2028, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. Farmers and agricultural retailers continue to face higher costs as conflicts and supply disruptions affect global fertilizer markets. CoBank economist Jacqui Fatka says Middle East instability, tight supplies, and limited phosphate availability could keep prices elevated well into 2027 and beyond. The Middle East supplies more than 60 million tons of fertilizer and raw materials annually, with much of that moving through the Strait of Hormuz. The region also accounts for more than 30 percent of global urea exports. U.S. farmers have responded to higher prices by relying more on soil testing, variable-rate applications, and precision nutrient management. Some have reduced phosphate and potassium applications by 10 to 15 percent, while maintaining nitrogen rates to protect yields. Fatka says continued reductions in fertilizer use could eventually begin affecting soil productivity and crop yields.